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Analysis of polysilicon prices in the first quarter

Clicks:2572Issuing time:2016-08-23 15:26:49

  Summary of the report hall: Since 2015, China's polysilicon companies have been operating smoothly. According to statistics from the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association's Silicon Branch, domestic polysilicon output was 23,700 tons in January-February this year, January output was 11,900 tons, and February output was 11,800 tons, of which Jiangsu Zhongneng's output accounted for 1 ~ In February, 48% of the total output was still the first in domestic production. TBEA and Luoyang China Silicon ranked second and third respectively. The top three companies' output from January to February accounted for 70.4% of the total output. At present, of the 17 companies in production, 7 have a 100% operating rate, and the rest are also stable in production. Jiangsu Zhongneng and TBEA both operate at overload, further reducing costs and improving efficiency.

  Crystalline silicon is the raw material for making single crystal silicon rods, and usually uses a single crystal pulling process, that is, in an ultra-vacuum single crystal furnace. A single crystal silicon rod is pulled out of the polysilicon in a molten state by using a seed crystal, and at the same time, a p-type or n-type single crystal silicon rod is produced by adding boron or arsenic.

  At present, the international polysilicon market is mainly monopolized by several major manufacturers in the United States, Japan, and Germany, forming a technological monopoly. In March 2013, the number of polysilicon imports from South Korea, the United States, and Germany accounted for 87.5% of the total.

  On July 18, 2013, the Ministry of Commerce of China announced the preliminary anti-dumping ruling on imports of polysilicon from the United States and South Korea. Starting from the 24th of this month, China will levy a maximum of 57% of imports of solar-grade polysilicon products originating in the United States and South Korea. Margin. This will to a certain extent prevent foreign manufacturers from dumping polysilicon in the country, and product prices will also rise moderately, with limited scope. The following is an analysis of China's polysilicon prices in the first quarter of 2015:

  Since entering 2015, China's polysilicon companies have run smoothly. According to statistics from the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association's Silicon Branch, domestic polysilicon output was 23,700 tons in January-February this year, January output was 11,900 tons, and February output was 11,800 tons, of which Jiangsu Zhongneng's output accounted for 1 ~ In February, 48% of the total output was still the first in domestic production. TBEA and Luoyang China Silicon ranked second and third respectively. The top three companies' output from January to February accounted for 70.4% of the total output. At present, of the 17 companies in production, 7 have a 100% operating rate, and the rest are also stable in production. Jiangsu Zhongneng and TBEA both operate at overload, further reducing costs and improving efficiency.

  In fact, in 2014, the scale of China's photovoltaic industry continued to expand, with polysilicon output reaching 132,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 57%, and silicon wafer output reaching 38 GW, a year-on-year increase of 28%. There are enterprises in the photovoltaic industry chain in the top ten in the world, and the first place is China's enterprises.

  In terms of polysilicon, the number of production companies in China has reached more than 18, and the scale of production has increased by 57.1% year-on-year. The capacity utilization rate of the industry has increased significantly, reaching 84.6%, and the industry is highly concentrated. The output of the top ten companies accounted for 91%. The five companies accounted for 77% of their products, and their product competitiveness has continued to increase.

  Polysilicon current price dropped 18.45% year-on-year

  Polysilicon market is generally stable, and at the same time, it has a small fluctuation. From January to February this year, the price of polysilicon in China slowed down slightly, from 144,400 yuan / ton in early January to 149,900 yuan / ton in mid-February, a decrease of 2.4%. Influenced by factors such as logistics, polysilicon materials are rarely traded, and the price of 149,900 yuan / ton has been maintained until the end of February. The latest data shows that the average domestic polysilicon foreign quotation at the beginning of last week was about 133,666 yuan / ton, and by the end of last week, the average foreign quotation was about 133,333 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.25%. The current price fell 18.45% year-on-year.

  Regarding the reason for the slow decline of polysilicon prices, Ma Haitian, Deputy Secretary-General of the Silicon Branch of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, and Liu Jing, an analyst, believe that the first is weak demand, and January to February is still mainly to digest inventory. The first quarter itself is not a photovoltaic Installation season. Secondly, the polysilicon market has ample supply. Most domestic polysilicon companies operate smoothly, and some companies have plans to expand production and supply exceeds demand. Third, the prices of imported polysilicon from WACKER in Germany and South Korea's OCI are lower than domestic products of the same grade by about RMB 30 thousand / ton. The impact on domestic polysilicon companies is obvious. Domestic companies have to cut prices to compete with imported polysilicon for a fixed market share.

  After going through a twist in 2008 ~ 2009, the price of polysilicon suddenly fell to US $ 40 / kg.

  In 2009 ~ 2011, the industry rose to 90 US dollars / kg again, and it dropped to 15 US dollars / kg in 2011 ~ 2013. Then it gradually started to pick up again from the second half of 2013. It should be said that polysilicon is still in the process of rising prices. "Wang Bohua, Secretary General of China Photovoltaic Industry Association, said.

  With the warmer weather, the increase in the start of photovoltaic projects, and the gradual availability of photovoltaic subsidies, the market demand for polysilicon will pick up. The industry analysis shows that from the perspective of supply and demand, polysilicon prices still have an upward momentum before the end of the second quarter.

  Polysilicon R & D technology still needs to be improved

  When the market is softening, some companies that strengthen production equipment and technological innovation are in an advantageous position.

  "Effective polysilicon production capacity is improving. Now some key polysilicon companies are relatively profitable. Some have higher production costs and are still at a loss. Capacity utilization is maintained at a high level, and some companies are planning to expand production. , Like Tianhong, GCL, and the Asian silicon industry have some development plans. "Wang Bohua said.

  However, for some domestic polysilicon companies that are on the edge of profit or loss, their production equipment and technology still need to be improved. In the view of Zhao Jian, chief engineer of Jiangsu Shuangliang New Energy Equipment Co., Ltd., despite the past ten years of development in China, a lot of improvements have been made in improving the Siemens process technology and core equipment, and great progress has been made. Domestic production management is at a relatively low level, and it is in extensive production management. The purity of polysilicon produced is relatively not high, and even few reach the national standard electronic level.

  At the end of March, GCL-Poly, a leading polysilicon company, announced its 2014 financial results. The announcement showed that its 2014 turnover reached a record HK $ 37.225 billion, the polysilicon and wafer market size continued to be the largest in the world, and the polysilicon output increased from the original 50,000 tons to 66,900 tons. This year, GCL-Poly continued to leverage its technology and R & D advantages to promote double-digit growth in the polysilicon and wafer business. "GCL-Poly is located upstream of the photovoltaic industry chain. Regardless of scale, cost, energy consumption, or power consumption, it is the world's leading industry." Said Dai Bing, chief technology officer of GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Co., Ltd.

  In April, TBEA announced the 2014 annual financial report. The polysilicon output reached 17500 tons and the inventory was 1515 tons. The order was full and there was no backlog.

  The financial report released by polysilicon manufacturer Daxin Energy Co., Ltd. shows that the annual revenue in 2014 increased by 67.5% to 182.6 million US dollars, which is much better than the 2013 net loss of 70.9 million US dollars.

  The improved Siemens method is already a mature technology in the world, and there is no breakthrough at present. Therefore, China's polysilicon production enterprises still need to further refine their management and improve product quality, while developing new production equipment and process technologies, such as silane flow. Chemical bed method, gas-liquid deposition method, etc.

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